On 27 May 2026, Ofgem will confirm the energy price cap that takes effect from 1 July. The current cap, £1,641 a year for a typical household, was already a stretch for millions. Industry analysts are now warning that the July figure will rise — possibly sharply — driven by the disruption of global oil and gas markets following the conflict between the United States and Iran. And once again, British households will be the ones paying for the consequences of decisions taken elsewhere — including in Westminster.

Cheap Energy Was Never Going to Come From Imports

Britain sits on top of significant fossil fuel reserves in the North Sea, has world-class shale resources under the Bowland Basin, and was for decades a net exporter of energy. We are now a net importer. We import a huge proportion of our gas. We import electricity through interconnectors from France and the Netherlands. We import biomass from North America to burn in Drax. And every time a missile lands in the Strait of Hormuz, your gas bill goes up.

That is not an accident. That is the deliberate result of fifteen years of energy policy designed around climate targets first and energy security a distant second. The previous government carried that policy forward; the current Labour government has accelerated it. The "Energy Independence Bill" promised in the King's Speech is a label, not a plan. There is nothing independent about an electricity grid that depends on imported gas to keep the lights on at peak demand.

Net Zero Without a Plan B

Nobody serious objects to clean energy. Nuclear, where it is built on time and on budget, is fantastic. Tidal and hydro have their place. Even renewables have a role where the economics genuinely work without ten layers of subsidy. But the bipartisan consensus that we should close domestic production faster than we can replace it — and then pretend imports do not count — is not green policy. It is a national security risk dressed up in a hi-vis vest.

Households are already carrying the cost. A record £4.5 billion of energy debt is owed by British consumers. Many of those people are working full-time. They are not feckless. They are simply trying to pay a bill the political class let spiral out of control.

The Households Already Behind on Bills

When the July cap is announced and the headlines are about pence-per-kilowatt-hour, remember that for millions of households this is not academic. A modest rise on top of the current cap will tip more people into debt, push more pensioners into the choice between heating and eating, and force more small businesses to lay people off because they cannot absorb another input cost shock. That is what a policy failure looks like at the kitchen table.

Ministers will reach for the same line they always do. The war is to blame. Putin is to blame. Now Tehran is to blame. There is some truth in all of that. But it ignores the harder question. Why has Britain, of all countries, made itself so exposed?

What Reform UK Would Do

Reform UK would restart serious domestic gas production, including a clear-eyed reassessment of onshore shale where there is local consent. We would back new North Sea licences instead of strangling them. We would invest in proper baseload — nuclear small modular reactors at pace — rather than throwing more billions at intermittent wind farms whose subsidy bill grows every year. We would scrap the green levies that pile onto household bills, and rebuild a strategic energy reserve so that the next Middle East shock does not arrive directly on your doormat as a price cap rise.

The Iran war did not cause Britain's energy fragility. It exposed it. The next price cap announcement on 27 May will tell us how big the bill is for two governments' worth of bad strategic choices. The households who pay it deserve a government that finally takes energy security as seriously as it takes climate slogans.