The verdict from the IMF could not be more damning. Britain — the country that was supposed to be powering ahead under Labour's "mission-driven" government — is now forecast to grow by just 0.8% this year. That isn't a recovery. That isn't growth. That is the sound of an economy grinding to a halt under the dead weight of Rachel Reeves' tax raids and Ed Miliband's energy fantasies.
When Labour took office in 2024, they told us they would deliver the fastest growth in the G7. They told us their fiscal rules were "iron-clad". They told us that tax rises would "stabilise" the public finances. Twenty-two months on, the IMF says they have stalled the country. The numbers don't lie. The promises did.
How Did We Get Here?
The story is simple, and Labour ministers won't tell it honestly. You cannot tax your way to growth. You cannot impose a £25 billion National Insurance raid on employers and expect them to hire. You cannot freeze income tax thresholds until 2031 and expect consumer spending to recover. You cannot drive farmers out of business with inheritance tax changes and expect rural Britain to prosper.
Add in the Iran war's effect on energy prices — entirely predictable, entirely ignored — and you have a perfect storm of self-inflicted economic damage. Labour didn't start the conflict in the Middle East. But Labour did refuse to maintain serious domestic energy security, refused to back the North Sea, refused to extend gas storage. We are paying for that recklessness now in heating bills and factory closures.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
An 0.8% growth forecast sounds bad. It is worse than it sounds. Population growth alone — driven by record net migration — is running well above that figure. In other words, per-person GDP is going backwards. The average Briton is becoming poorer under Labour, year on year. That is not an opinion. It is arithmetic.
Meanwhile, business investment has fallen. The UK has dropped down the OECD's growth rankings to the bottom of the G7. Manufacturing is in recession. Hospitality is shedding jobs. Pubs are closing at a rate not seen since the financial crisis. And Reeves stands at the despatch box telling the country that her "plan is working".
Labour's Excuses Are Wearing Thin
Every time the numbers come in worse than expected, the same lines are deployed. "Global headwinds." "Inherited mess." "Long-term decisions." It's the rhetorical equivalent of a child blaming the dog for their broken homework. The Conservatives left office two years ago. This is Labour's economy. Labour's choices. Labour's damage.
The IMF, for its part, is not a Reform UK propaganda outlet. It is a multilateral institution whose forecasts move markets. When it pencils in 0.8% for the UK while pencilling in higher figures for almost every comparable nation, the message is unambiguous: Britain has a Britain-specific problem, and that problem sits in Downing Street.
What Reform UK Would Do
Reform UK has been consistent and explicit. We would lift the income tax personal allowance to £20,000 — putting thousands of pounds back into the pockets of working people overnight. We would scrap the inheritance tax raid on farmers and family businesses. We would abolish the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero in its current form and rip up the levies inflating bills. We would cut the corporation tax rate that drives investment to Ireland, and we would slash the regulatory burden that makes Britain the slowest place in Europe to build anything.
Growth is not a mystery. It comes from confidence, capital and competitiveness. Labour have killed all three. Until they go, the IMF — and every other serious forecaster — will keep telling us what Reform voters already know. Britain deserves better. And it will need an entirely different government to get it.